It's Behind You!
Always being alert to managing risk, especially on a cold day, I nipped to the loo before taking Louis for his walk.
When I came out my phone had disappeared. I’d had it just seconds earlier and now it was gone. I looked on the sideboard near the front door, our default dumping ground for phones, keys and the other random detritus of modern life, to no avail. I peered in the fruit bowl that holds the sad collection of safety pins, buttons, elastic hair ties and those wire puzzles you get in crackers, (anything that looks like it might be useful one day, really, apart from fruit) but it wasn’t there. I looked in the kitchen, despite knowing I’d used it since leaving; I opened ‘the drawer’ and raked through the mass of cables and phone chargers that date from the early days of mobile telephony. I rummaged down the sides of the sofas and I checked again in the loo - even looking through the cabinet drawers that I knew I hadn’t opened.
This was not a particularly unusual experience for me, and I occasionally wonder if my mental decline is normal. I seem to be forever struggling to recall names, sometimes of people standing in front of me and who I’ve known for years. I was discussing this with a friend who reassured me that while forgetting where you left your car keys is normal, putting them in the freezer is possibly a flag for something more sinister. So far at least, the freezer is clear of car keys although I am considering adding it to my default search pattern.
In any event, finding the world confusing has been a lifelong affliction – there are some things I simply don’t understand. When I was younger it was why I couldn’t lick my elbow; as I matured it was US gun control policy and the widespread animosity towards fat blokes on bikes. More recently I’ve been confused by US politics. How could Joe Biden possibly be so lacking in self-awareness that he didn’t realise he was unelectable or, as a client pointed out, why, the day after his inauguration, Jill Biden didn’t quietly take him to one side and whisper in his ear ‘well done dear, you’ve got the top job in the world – now you need to be thinking about a successor.’ Which leads me to my biggest confusion – Trump. Or perhaps I should say confusions as there are so many aspects of the man that I simply do not understand, not least that half of the most powerful nation on earth support him.
Of course, what Trump does is of more than passing interest. What happens in the US will have an impact on the rest of the world. Already markets are pricing in fewer interest rate cuts and sticky inflation risks being ramped up by policies such as tariffs and forced deportation of millions of undocumented workers. These workers are key to essential industries like construction, where they account for one in six workers, and farming where, according to estimates from the University of California, nearly 1m of America’s 2.5m farmworkers are unauthorised immigrants. The hit to the economy would be so great it seems unlikely Trump will follow through on his promise, but it must be unsettling for those affected.
I read advice from a former diplomat that you shouldn’t take what he says literally, but you should take it seriously. This chimes with a lot of our thinking more generally. We’re interested in behavioural economics and the psychology of decision making. One important aspect is the effect of salience – for example, we can be so distracted by a noisy, strangely orange-hued man being ever more outrageous that we miss far more impactful but less obvious changes.
We’re lucky to have Dr. Ariel Gu, a lecturer in behavioural finance here at UEA, coming to work with us on a regular basis to share ideas around how we can use concepts from behavioural economics to improve our clients’ outcomes. Taking time out to really look at this is already generating some great suggestions, and I am certain it will help improve our proposition.
Meanwhile, back at Mangreen Louis was getting restless, and the phone was still playing hide and seek. Struggling not to sound accusatory, I asked Mrs R if she’d moved it. ‘It will be where you left it, Richard’ was her unhelpful response. ‘Have you tried calling it?’ I called on the landline and heard it ringing behind me, near the sideboard. I spun around but couldn’t see it and the voicemail cut in so I couldn’t hear it now either. I called again. This time it was clearly on the other side of the room. I spun around again as the voicemail cut in but still couldn’t see it. I called a third time and Mrs R was triumphant ‘I don’t believe this! it’s in your back pocket!’
Her grin turned into a laugh, and I was forced to join her - for a while I had been completely and utterly confused; I couldn’t work out what was happening, and it really was very funny.
Richard Ross January 2025
Postscript: Mrs R has asked me to point out that our fruit bowl does actually have fruit in it and that I was drawing on the memory of the fruit bowl in my childhood home. Can I come in now, dear?
Our Webinar at 4.00 pm on 28th January will explore the implications of the second Trump presidency. More details and book a place here.